Research Area:  Machine Learning

Abstract:

This study proposes a hierarchical pattern recognition method for tourism demand forecasting. The hierarchy consists of three tiers: the first tier recognizes the calendar pattern of tourism demand, identifying work days and holidays and integrating floating holidays.The second tier recognizes the tourism demand pattern in the data stream for different calendar pattern groups. The third tier generates forecasts of future tourism demand. Evidence from daily tourist visits to three attractions in China shows that the proposed method is effective in forecasting daily tourism demand. Moreover, the treatment of floating holidays turns out to be more effective and flexible than the commonly adopted dummy variable approach.

Keywords:  

Author(s) Name:  Mingming Hu,Richard T.R. Qiu,Doris Chenguang Wu,Haiyan Song

Publisher name:  Elsevier

DOI:  10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104263

Volume Information:   Volume 84, June 2021, 104263

Paper Link:   https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261517720301898