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On the Economic Significance of Stock Market Prediction and the No Free Lunch Theorem - 2019

On The Economic Significance Of Stock Market Prediction And The No Free Lunch Theorem

Research Area:  Machine Learning


Forecasting of stock market returns is a challenging research activity that is now expanding with the availability of new data sources, markets, financial instruments, and algorithms. At its core, the predictability of prices still raises important questions. Here, we discuss the economic significance of the prediction accuracy. To develop this question, we collect the daily series prices of almost half of the publicly traded companies around the world over a period of ten years and formulate some trading strategies based on their prediction. Proper visualization of these data together with the use of the No Free Lunch theoretical framework gives some unexpected results that show how the a priori less accurate algorithms and inefficient strategies can offer better results than the a priori best alternatives in some particular subsets of data that have a clear interpretation in terms of economic sectors and regions.


Author(s) Name:  Carlos Bousoño-Calzón; Josué Bustarviejo-Muñoz; Pedro Aceituno-Aceituno; José Joaquín Escudero-Garzás

Journal name:  IEEE Access

Conferrence name:  

Publisher name:  IEEE

DOI:  10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2921092

Volume Information:  Volume: 7, Page(s): 75177 - 75188